Email of the day (1)
"Perhaps it is my imagination but your Monday audio seemed more upbeat than recent big picture audios. Your recent audios have suggested a pullback in the US markets to around or below the 200 day ma followed by extended ranging. This would clearly affect most world markets. Monday's audio included a possible 30% lift in the Japanese market in the next few months and very positive comments about the US. With this scenario do you not feel that world markets would follow, suggesting another leg up in the bull market? Many world markets, including emerging ones have seen significant pullbacks so are not overbought."
David Fuller's view I do not think it was your "imagination"
and thanks for bring this up so that I can clarify my views for all subscribers.
A number of leading stock markets, which had been rallying since late last year, pushed higher above their 200-day moving averages in April and May than we had seen previously during the rally. Overextensions of this type are unsustainable and most of the indices fell back to test and even break their MAs before recovering somewhat in recent weeks.
I did think that the S&P 500 would also test and temporarily move below its rising MA, but it has yet to do so, probably because Ben Bernanke's last statement was seen as quite bullish in terms of interest rates remaining low. I think Bernanke has been quite consistent but the markets took fright when he mentioned an eventual tapering of quantitative easing (QE) in May.
The S&P 500 and other leading indices such as Japan's Nikkei 225 are once again overbought on a short-term basis. I maintain that leading stock markets are now in a somewhat choppy, ranging environment which could persist for a lengthy period, not least because the next big change in monetary policy will be a programme of tapering and eventually ending QE.
Our longer-term view of the US is quite positive, largely because of: 1) Its competitive energy costs, thanks to fracking; 2) Its lead in many technologies, which appears to be increasing; 3) The dominant role of its Autonomies, which should mostly increase in strength and overall profitability as the global economy eventually recovers.
However, I believe the Monday Audio also mentioned some short-term hurdles for the US stock market: 1) Its latest rally is somewhat overextended; 2) Valuations have generally increased following the strong rally since last November; 3) Growth in corporate profits is slowing; 4) Economic growth does not appear to be the White House's top interest or priority.