Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

January 11 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on infant formula
“Interesting; this also happened in New Zealand a while back.

“It emboldens me to ask if you could add Freedom Foods to chart library ASX: FNP

“Its Market Cap is rising and part of the group is investing to meet those needs as is one of its associates (not a tip of course – but I follow it and it would be really convenient to have it in your library).”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this suggestion which relates to David's piece quoting an article on demand for infant formula in Comment of Day on January 9th. I have added Freedom Foods to the Chart Library. The share has accelerated of late and is becoming increasingly susceptible to mean reversion.

In an environment where the global population is expanding and per capita disposable income is increasing even faster, infant formula represents a powerful growth story. The brand loyalty and demand for quality that are such important features of this market also protect the positions of some of the largest producers. (Also see Comment of the Day on November 21st 2011).

Nestle continues to consolidate in the region of CHF60 and a sustained move below CHF58 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Heinz found support in the region of its 200-day MA last week and continues to rebound. A sustained move below $55 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Bristol Myer Squibb has been forming a first step above its base for more than year but firmed from above $30 again in December and a sustained move below that level would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Bristol Myer Squibb spun off Mead Johnson Nutrition in 2009. The share broke its progression of higher reaction lows in July and has trended lower since. It has rallied back to test the region of the now declining 200-day MA but will need to sustain a move above $75 to suggest a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.

Perrigo pulled back to test the $100 region from November in a clear loss of consistency. It will need to continue to hold above that level if the benefit of the doubt is to be given to the medium-term uptrend.

I reviewed Hong Kong listed Biostime International Holdings in Comment of the Day on December 13th . The share has since surged higher and is somewhat overbought as it tests the HK$30 area. A sustained move below HK$25 would be required to question medium-term scope for further upside.

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