Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

July 06 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on mortgage REITS and a potential venue for The Chart Seminar:
“Couple of things...How about having the Chart Seminar in Ireland, Kerry maybe?

“Could you please add Armour Residential REIT to the Chart Library (ARR). It is another of the mortgage REITS. It pays its dividend (16.5%) monthly and is acting well. Another one that I like that is in the library is Newcastle Investment Corp (NCT). It is expected to increase its dividend in the next quarter or so, from a rather healthy 11.5%. It is also purchasing Excess Mortgage Servicing Rights (EMSRs), which are being sold off wholesale by many regulated entities at historically attractive prices, for the buyers. They are no longer suitable for banks to hold, for a myriad of reasons, mainly technical accounting/regulatory. The interesting thing about EMSRs is that they are a great hedge against rising rates, which is the primary risk with MREITS. There is a related company, Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (NSM) that I would like to add to the library also. It looks interesting and is doing the actual servicing of the NCT's EMSRs. It is also in the mortgage banking business itself. I don't own any yet, but I do hold ARR and NCT. All the best.”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your warm regards and active participation at the San Francisco venue for The Chart Seminar in April. NCB Stock Brokers generously sponsored my first Chart Seminar in Dublin in late 2007 and I conducted another Dublin seminar in early 2009. I would be delighted to arrange another Irish venue but as with any other, it would depend entirely on potential interest.

Thanks also for the informed additional first hand intelligence on the mortgage industry. All of the above shares can now be found in the Chart Library. (Also see Comment of the Day on May 29 th and June 21 st).

Armour Residential REIT has been decreasing its dividend gradually over the last couple of years but still has a very high pay out at 16.3%. The share rallied this week to break the two-year progression of lower rally highs and a sustained move below $7 would be required to question potential for additional upside.

Newcastle Investment Corp reinstated its dividend in June 2011 and currently yields 11.32%. It has held a progression of higher reaction lows since October and a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near $6 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

NationStar Mortgage was launched in March and has yet to pay a dividend. The share price reflects a demand dominated environment. It broke out of the one-month range last week and while it is becoming increasingly overbought in the short-term a sustained move below $20 would be required to question potential for additional upside over the medium-term.

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