Email of the day (1)
“I hope you're well and gearing up for the London TCS this week. It‘s always an interesting week but current market volatility should add further to the occasion and to the participants' debate. Unfortunately work commitments prevent me from travelling this year.
“See the attached summary of the most recent Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting which was prepared by Stephen Cloonan from Dublin. It's an excellent summary, with some pertinent questions answered by Buffet himself. Feel free to share it with the FM Collective.”
Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this interesting account
and yes, it will be an exciting week which I am eagerly anticipating. I look
forward to meeting you again at a future seminar. Here is a section from the
note on the US and European banking sectors:
In
response to a questioner from Vienna (the mostly American crowd were amused
that his surname was Fuhrer) Buffett said that he thought the American banks
were in a much better position than 3 or four years ago. They had taken most
of the abnormal losses they needed to absorb and they had improved their capital
ratios and liquidity.
The
European banks still needed more capital. They had traditionally been more dependent
on “wholesale” money which was less dependable. While the ECB had solved the
liquidity problem for a while by injecting a trillion dollars into the European
banks the underlying problems still remained.
The
S&P 500 Banks Index pulled back
rather sharply last week from the upper side of the more than two-year range.
It formed a small upside key reversal today suggesting at least a pause in the
region of the 200-day MA. Follow through tomorrow would bolster the case for
an additional unwind of the short-term oversold condition. The KBW
Regional Banks Index has a relatively similar pattern. The S&P
500 Diversified Financials has become increasingly oversold as it declined
by more 20% over the last two months. Potential for at least a technical rally
has increased but a sustained advance above 260 would be required to check the
consistency of the two-month downtrend.
The
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Banks Index hit
a new twenty-year low on Thursday and will need to sustain a move above 90 to
begin to question the consistency of the decline. The FTSE-350
Banks Index has accelerated lower over the last few weeks and is now testing
the 3200 level. A clear upward dynamic will be required to check momentum and
suggest demand is returning to dominance in the region of the 2011 lows.
The
Australian Financial Index encountered
resistance in the region of the lower side of the overhead range three weeks
ago and has returned to test the yearlong progression of higher reaction lows
and the psychological 4000 area. It will need to find support in the current
region if medium-term potential for continued higher to lateral ranging is to
remain credible. Following an impressive rebound in 2009, the Canadian
S&P/TSX Financials Index has been largely rangebound since 2010. It
is currently mid-range and a clear upward dynamic will be required to check
downward momentum beyond a brief pause.