Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

May 11 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On sterling appreciation against some emerging market currencies:
"Thank you again for your excellent service and for providing insights into these extremely exciting but scary times!

"Over the last year I have held money in emerging market equities and the investments, particularly recently, have been decimated by a strengthening sterling. For example, the Bovespa has fallen 2.5% in local currency terms over the last year but by 18.9% in sterling terms. The Bovespa is now approaching its 200 day moving average which is a possible entry point to increase exposure.

"Can you give me some wise words of wisdom on how you handle currency in your investment strategy (I am a UK citizen and intend to spend my life spending sterling in the UK!) as well as what your thoughts are on investing in Brazil now that the stock market has reverted to the mean."

David Fuller's view Thank you for your kind works. We can only deal with the reality that markets provide and the fact that you find these times exciting indicates that you have the emotional resilience necessary to deal with the scary aspects of analytical challenges.

Also being a UK citizen intending to remain in England, I face similar currency challenges, as do many of your colleagues in the Collective. Personally, I am gratified to see some sterling strength for a change and there is usually a swings and roundabouts aspect to the majority of currency moves.

This monthly chart of GBP/BRL shows that the pound is recovering from a region of previous support and although it appears slightly overextended in the short term, there is nothing on the chart to suggest that it will not appreciate somewhat further over the medium term. GBP/INR has been an even bigger problem recently for those of us with investments in India.

I wish I could offer some "words of wisdom" on how to handle currency fluctuations but it is not easy because we have to consider the market's attitude towards governance in two very different countries. Obviously we want to look at charts and probably on a longer-term basis for what I assume are often investments intended for at least medium-term duration.

Forex cross-rates will obviously fluctuate, although usually less than the stock markets in question. One could hedge the currency risk in some instances although this is not always easy with emerging markets. Hedges can also work against us. Consequently, I usually accept the currency fluctuation which will sometimes enhance and at other times inhibit returns in the underlying asset.

Some counterintuitive thinking may help. If a currency has been strong for several years, it will be fashionable but also increasingly susceptible to a medium-term correction, and vice versa.

Currently, there are concerns over governance in both Brazil and India, and this has weighed on their currencies. Taking a longer-term view, once these are resolved to the market's satisfaction, there will be plenty of reasons to look forward to a period of BRL or INR relative strength.

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