Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

March 29 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on long-term charts
"Every now and again I like to go through the Chart Library looking at the 50 year charts to focus on the big secular moves-it is always time well spent. For my own amusement I compiled this list of the longest standing all time stock market highs. I thought I would send it to you just in case you thought the Collective might be interested. The list includes the date of the all time high, the level of the index at the high and the percentage below the all time high at Friday's close. (Be warned that it is possible that I missed a few and/or miscalculated the data.)

1. Japan: Topix Banks: Dec 1989 (1477) / 90% below high at Friday's close
Nikkei: Jan 1990 (38950) / 72%
Topix: Jan 1990 (2884) / 67%
2. Taiwan TWSE: Feb 1990 (12424) / 37%
3. Thailand SET: Jan 1994 (1789) / 56%
4. MSCI China Free Index: Jan 1994 (11553) / 45%
5. Ecuador: Feb 1995 or before (175?) / 36%?
6. Greece: Sep 1999 (6484) / 67%
7. UK FTSE 100: Dec 1999 (6950) / 18%
8. Nasdaq Comp.: March 2000 (5132) / 53%
9. Italy MIB: March 2000 (50109) / 54%
Sweden OMX: March 2000 (1547) / 34%
Finland: March 2000 (18408) / 60%
Portugal: March 2000 (15081) / 46%
UK FTSE AIM: March 2000 (2924) / 76%

"Many thanks for the splendid work you do."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this informative email and your kind words. I agree looking at lots of long-term charts is time well spent, not least because it is a quick cure for the myopia often associated with short-term trading. I have inserted the relevant charts but we were wondering what conclusions you drew from the data?

The Thai and Taiwanese indices have been in large ranges for almost two decades, suggesting that support is being built for eventual upside breaks. The Japanese and a number of European indices are rallying from historic areas of support and appear to have scope for additional upside. I do not know what the MSCI China Free Index holds but its performance is quite different from the Hang Seng or H-Share indices. It appears to hold additional upside potential. While we know that a number of the Nasdaq's leading shares have already surpassed their previous highs, it will probably be some time before the wider index can do the same.

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