Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

October 20 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On the Indian Rupee:
"Thank you for your notes on India. Would you have a view on why the Indian Rupee has weakened considerably in recent weeks, relative to £, despite various rate increases in India? Some thoughts on the chart pattern would also be welcome."

David Fuller's view When international investors take fright there is a tendency to seek temporary haven the liquid USD market and GBP can be a dollar proxy. Once underway, this also encourages a momentum move among forex traders.

You can see this with GBP/INR (monthly & weekly). I suspect this move will run into resistance above R80, if it gets there, because once the move loses momentum it becomes very expensive to maintain, given interest rate differentials.

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