Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

August 15 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On the presidential cycle:
Thank you for the outstanding service, and thanks for answering my questions previously. Most analysts (fullermoney included) believe the third year of the US presidential election cycle is quite bullish. 2011 is one of these years, but we are now in a total rout. Are we going to have a down year for a change? My belief is that the norm will prevail, and 2011 is going to be a positive year. 1987 was also a 3rd year of presidential election. The market crashed in Oct., but subsequently ended the year on a positive note. (I was only 17, and don't remember much of what happened in 10/1987. David or Eoin probably can tell us more).

"On 8/4/2011, Goldman Sachs projected S&P 500 to be at 1400 by the end of 2011. Here is the link.

"Does fullermoney share Goldman's projection?"

David Fuller's view Thanks for the feedback and you are very welcome.

Historically, the third and fourth years of a US election cycle have been more bullish on Wall Street than the first and second years. You can find the statistics in a stock market almanac. There is a rationale. The party of the incumbent administration may be tempted to pump up the economy, if it can, prior to the next election. When the next government takes over it may wish or need to clean out the Augean stables.

Of course there are often exceptions. 2007 was a modest up year on Wall Street and 2008 a disaster. The first two years of this election cycle were quite strong.

I mean no disrespect towards David Kostin of Goldman Sachs or any other strategist but personally, I think yearend forecasts are a mug's game. He probably does as well and targets are more guesswork than analysis.

Fullermoney would rather interpret than guess. Stock markets have fallen back to interesting levels and while I have often said in Audios that recent forecasts for yearend corporate profits were too high, in my opinion, they are not the main concern. Looking beyond the current technical rally, we will want to see a successful retest of the recent lows as part of a support building process before turning bullish. We would also like to see lower prices for crude oil and staple foods such as rough rice, and an end to monetary tightening in the growth economies. (See also email 2 below.)

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