Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

August 12 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on Canadian high yielders:
"Thanks for the timely update on dividend players.

"Canadian investors are unfortunately faced with a stiff tax on the dividends from foreign stocks, so we would appreciate it if you could do an update (when you have the time) on Canadian high yielders, where many of the income trusts have converted to stocks.

"Also appreciate if you could add CFX and MMF.UN to the veritable Chart Library.

"Some of the charts also need fixing, either due to missing data or splits:

"LIF.UN, BTE, BA, BNP, CLC, VSN, DH, KEY, PVE, VET

"Thank you"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your kind words and suggestions for the Chart Library. I have added CFX and MMF and updated the others you mention.

Canada is a fertile market for yield hungry investors. The S&P/TSX Index currently has a P/E of 16.37 and 2.7%. Companies in the financial, energy, telecommunications and food sectors tend to yield considerably more. The S&P/TSX has had one of the more impressive bounces this week as a period of short covering begins. However, the Index has been deteriorating since March and a sustained break of the progression of lower rally highs, currently near 13,500, will be required to question the medium-term downtrend.

I last posted the S&P/TSX list of Canadian Dividend Aristocrats on January 14th. Since then the list has contracted from 56 to 39 members. S&P defines a Canadian dividend aristocrat as a company which has raised its dividend every year for the last five. The average yield for the 39 companies is 2.89%.

AGF Management Class B (6.74%), Bird Construction (6.03%) and Enbridge Income Fund Holdings (6.1%) are the higher yielding constituents. Of the three, the latter has the more attractive chart pattern. In common with other pipeline related Canadian shares such as TransCanada (4.1%) and Veresen (7.39%), They have rallied impressively this week to form large weekly upside key reversals. Pipelines are an economically essential sector with attractive yields. This week's lows could potentially represent medium-term lows for these particular shares.

Telus Corp (4.16%) has had a relatively shallow reaction to date. It also posted an upside weekly key reversal this week; having found support in the region of the 200-day MA.

Shaw Communications (4.35%) has been ranging with a mild upward bias for the last two years. It also rallied impressively this week and a sustained move below C$20 would be required to check potential for additional higher to lateral ranging. Bell Aliant (6.91%) has a similar pattern.

The Canadian banking sector has been lauded for its stability since 2008 but has not been immune from the selling pressure evidenced over the last couple of weeks. The S&P/TSX Financials Index found at least short-term support near the lower side of the 2-year range this week but a sustained move above 1750 will be required to question the current downward bias.

Toronto Dominion (3.48%), Bank of Nova Scotia (3.83%) and Canadian Western Bank (1.86%) have all been removed from the Dividend Aristocrat list. I'm not altogether certain why because I see no evidence that Toronto Dominion and Bank of Nova Scotia failed to increase their respective dividends. These two banks have experienced by far the largest reactions within the course of their respective two year uptrends. They found at least short-term support this week and there is further scope for an additional short covering rally. However sustained moves to new high ground would be required to question the current bear market hypothesis. Canadian Western Bank lost upward momentum from March but held onto the majority of its gains. It will also need to sustain a move to new high ground to reaffirm the medium-term uptrend.

Royal Bank of Canada (4.18%) is currently testing the lower side of a potential two-year Type-3 top formation as taught at The Chart Seminar. This week's rally was impressive but a sustained move back above C$55 would be required to defray current scope for additional medium-term downside.

The S&P/TSX Income Trust Index (5.94%) has also posted the largest reaction in at least two years. While it bounced back impressively this week and there is room for an additional short covering rally, a sustained move above 170 would be required to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance. The UK listed Middlefield Canadian Income Trust yields 5% and has a relatively similar pattern.

Most of the above chart patterns have experienced significant technical deterioration. Sectors essential to the functioning of the Canadian economy offering attractive yields are less likely to be subject to concerted selling pressure than those more focused on the banking sector for example. Canada is replete with high income investment opportunities and these are worth monitoring for signs that medium-term lows are being formed. At present it is too early to make that judgement call for the majority of shares.

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