Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

July 01 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On UK banks:
"David/Eoin hi and hope you are both well and enjoying the summer.

"My question is regarding UK banks. I note that they lost 84% of their value from their February 2007 high to their low in March 2009.

"On the basis that new bull markets begin when no one is considering them as investments would you think that now is a good time to invest and do you feel that the lows of 2009 will be taken out or tested.I note that the failure this week of the UK banks sector to fail to hold the break to the downside could be a significant signal.I note also the low level of exposure that funds currently have to banks and wonder if this is an excellent contrary signal."

David Fuller's view Interesting question and here are charts of the FTSE 350 Banks Index (weekly & daily).

For many of the most conservative investors this is game of buy-low-sell-high, and banks are certainly low. For momentum players this is often a game of buy-high-sell-higher.

When I think of buy-low-sell-high, I mainly have in mind bear market or at least correction lows, and then I look for the early upside leaders on a global basis. UK banks no longer qualify although they did for a while following the March 2009 lows when massive short covering occurred. Subsequently, the Index looks like a base extension in perpetuity.

I think UK banks have commenced a technical rally because they were short-term oversold and this week's upward dynamic has put at least a temporary floor under the market. However they remain relative underperformers. Personally, following a corrective phase such as we have seen recently, I would rather buy the upside leaders, which you can see with a scan for the shares which qualify. Or just scroll through the FTSE 100 Index constituents and the same for any other section listed in the Library.

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