Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

June 21 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on global banking sectors:
"Thoroughly enjoyed TCS in Sydney. Even after following the service pretty closely for nearly 10 years I managed to take an enormous amount from the two days. I wish I had attended years ago.

"With the equity markets experiencing a pull back, I am conscious that you will be looking to the performance of major country/region banking sectors as an indicator of an eventual turnaround. What would you list as the 10-15 charts that best represent the respective country/regional performances of this sector (a sort of banking sector watchlist)?"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your kind words, topical question and I'm delighted you enjoyed the Sydney Chart Seminar. I hope to return for another seminar at some point in 2013. As you point out, we often look at banks as lead indicators not least because this is so often backed up by fact but also because as liquidity providers they should prosper during a major bull market. They also tend to peak early as liquidity is removed. In an effort to keep an eye on various banking indices we created a section in the Chart Library specifically devoted to bank and utility sectors which can be found on the menu.

If I had to limit the number of sector indices to 10 or 15 I would choose at least a few places for the USA. I reviewed the S&P500 Diversified Financials Index, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and the KRW Regional Banks indices yesterday so I will not repeat that commentary here except to say that as the largest economy by far, economic conditions and monetary policy in the USA will always be of concern.

In a watchlist, I would have the S&P Diversified Financials because it represents the large global investment banks. I would also like to have the KRW Regional Banking Index because with its smaller regional banks it probably gives a more accurate representation of the USA's domestic economy.

For Europe I would have the Euro Stoxx Banks Index, the FTSE-350 Banks Index and Swiss Banks Index all of which have deteriorated markedly this year but found at least short-term support this week.

I would concentrate my list in Asia because it is the engine of global growth and home to some of the best performing markets globally since late 2008. The dominant investment theme of the decade, the Greatest Urbanisation in History, is also focused on this region. Asia is also where bank leadership in the current cycle is most evident. Indian Banks led on the upside and have also led in the current correction. They are also likely to lead once a recovery commences. Indonesian banks have also demonstrated leadership and continue to at least perform in line with the wider market.

Asia's financial centres of Singapore and Hong Kong would be essential constituents. Both have been ranging for much of the last 18 months and have exhibited a downward bias since the beginning of 2011. China's FTSE Xinhua A600 Banks Index has been rangebound for the last 16 months and needs to hold a move back above 10,000 to indicate a return to demand dominance.

I would round out the list with sector indices for Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Canada, Australia, Japanese and since Brazil does not appear to have a banking sector index perhaps Banco do Brasil.

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