Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

June 16 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on FRA/OIS spreads and additions to the Chart Library:
"Could you check this chart in the library which doesn't seem to be correct: EUFOSC1 - at least the bar charts seem odd. Could you add the US version USFOSC1? If you could add a number of OIS spreads to the chart library and describe them..."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this suggestion and I have added the US 3-month FRA/OIS spread to the Chart Library as well as the relevant spreads for the UK, Canada, Australia and Switzerland. The bars for the European equivalent are questionable but correspond with what is available on Bloomberg. I asked their help desk to correct this and await a reply. As you point out, interest in measures of financial sector risk such as the TED spread and the OIS spread has increased over the last couple of days as the perceptions of how serious the Greek debt crisis have deteriorated.

Comment of the Day on November 30th 2009 may also be of interest as a broader range of risk measures were covered.

Following a relatively quiet period over the last year the US Dollar 3-month FRA/OIS spread advanced sharply yesterday suggesting investors are attaching an additional risk premium to the financial sector. This is not particularly surprising considering the depth of the crisis on the Eurozone's periphery. A similar upward dynamic was posted on the British Pound and Euro equivalents.

The Canadian spread has been rising over the last year and is now testing the upper side of the two-year base. The Swiss spread has also rallied to test the upper side of its developing base.

The Australian spread has tightened over the last year but has rallied to break the short-term downtrend and looks more likely than not to rally somewhat from current levels.

While the risk premium attached to the financial sector has increased and USA, European and UK institutions are potentially most exposed to the risk of a Greek default, these spreads are more reflective of sentiment rather than lead indicators.

Back to top