Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

March 21 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on thorium:
With all the attention and heightened fears over the future for nuclear energy resulting from the Fukushima plant accident I wonder if you have noticed that thorium as an alternative seems to be gaining attention. A leader in this field is Aker Solutions ASA (AKSO) of Norway (listed in the library). It made an upward dynamic on Friday. Any thoughts on this?

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this informative email. Following a major nuclear accident, it is reasonable to expect people to begin to think about a safer alternative. Thorium as a nuclear fuel source is one such option as are molten salt reactors and Generation IV reactors more generally. (Also see Comment of the Day on March 6th 2009) . http://www.fullermoney.com/x/default.html?mc=y&id=1571&schtxt=thorium

Here is a section from the World Nuclear Association listing some of the advantages and disadvantages of thorium as a fuel:

Despite the thorium fuel cycle having a number of attractive features, development has always run into difficulties.

The main attractive features are:
The possibility of utilising a very abundant resource which has hitherto been of so little interest that it has never been quantified properly.
The production of power with few long-lived transuranic elements in the waste.
Reduced radioactive wastes generally.

The problems include:
The high cost of fuel fabrication, due partly to the high radioactivity of U-233 chemically separated from the irradiated thorium fuel. Separated U-233 is always contaminated with traces of U-232 (69 year half-life but whose daughter products such as thallium-208 are strong gamma emitters with very short half-lives). Although this confers proliferation resistance to the fuel cycle by making U-233 hard to handle and easy to detect, it results in increased costs.

The similar problems in recycling thorium itself due to highly radioactive Th-228 (an alpha emitter with two-year half life) present.
Some concern over weapons proliferation risk of U-233 (if it could be separated on its own), although many designs such as the Radkowsky Thorium Reactor address this concern.

The technical problems (not yet satisfactorily solved) in reprocessing solid fuels. However, with some designs, in particular the molten salt reactor (MSR), these problems are likely to largely disappear.

Much development work is still required before the thorium fuel cycle can be commercialised, and the effort required seems unlikely while (or where) abundant uranium is available. In this respect, recent international moves to bring India into the ambit of international trade might result in the country ceasing to persist with the thorium cycle, as it now has ready access to traded uranium and conventional reactor designs.

Nevertheless, the thorium fuel cycle, with its potential for breeding fuel without the need for fast neutron reactors, holds considerable potential in the long-term. It is a significant factor in the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy.

As you mention, Aker Solutions has a thorium fuelled reactor design. However, I'm not sure whether Norway currently has plans to build such a reactor. The company is primarily known for oil rigs, and other heavy construction projects. The share found support in the region of the 200-day MA from last July and hit a new recovery high in January. It has paused near NOK120 for the last month and a sustained move below NOK100 would be required to question medium-term scope for some additional upside.

Rare earth elements are often found in conjunction with radioactive elements such as thorium so they have potential to increase supply if it were needed.

We received three emails today on the subject of thorium which is somewhat unusual. In the below emails, two people asked for Lightbridge Corp to be added to the Chart Library. When I searched for thorium companies in 2009, Thorium Power was the only US listed company I found. It was taken over by Lightbridge Corp in September 2009. The share remains near the lower side of a five year base. A rally towards the upper side would represent a doubling from current levels while a sustained move above $11 would be required to indicate the return to medium-term demand dominance.

All Star Minerals is listed on the LSE PLUS market. It has rallied over the last few months, in sympathy with uranium miners, but only has a market cap of £1.1million.

Binh Dinh Minerals, listed in Vietnam, broke its 20-month progression of lower rally highs last week and is now testing the 200-day MA. A clear downward dynamic would now be required to question potential for some additional upside.

At this juncture, thorium does not appear to offer a significant challenge to uranium as a fuel source for nuclear reactors

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