Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

January 11 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on a longer-term cotton continuation chart:
"Thanks again for the wonderful service. I wonder if there is a practical way of adding the Dec 2011 cotton futures contract with the back data of the previous years to the chart library. We feel current crop volume will drop drastically soon, therefore traders will be focusing on new crop. And all the northern hemisphere farmers are now checking the new crop prices to decide what to plant. Maybe you and your other subscribers would also be interested in the most active new crop contracts of wheat, soya etc. thanks in advance."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this suggestion and I have added the 5th month continuation chart for cotton to the Chart Library. We currently post 1st and 2nd month continuation charts for each of the most important agriculture markets. I understand your point about looking further out the curve to gauge where next season's crops are currently trading and, with this information, attempting to estimate which crops are most likely to be planted. However we cannot create a permanent chart that has both continuous data for an individual contract and back history exceeding the life of that specific contract. This is because continuation charts roll with the most active contract. Using cotton as an example, the 5th month continuation chart, while currently relevant, will roll on the expiration of the March 2011 contract. This will result in the 4th month continuation chart then referencing the December 2011 contract, necessitating a break in the automation process of updates.

You may also find this commodity curve chart from Bloomberg of interest. It depicts cotton's contango across every month from March 2011 to October 2012. This suggests more than a short-term supply squeeze.

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