"There is a cotton futures market in china. I do not know its name or ticker. Could you possibly add this Chinese cotton future market to your chart library? Thanks again for all the good work."
And from the same delegate
"I attended the chart seminar of Eoin last week. It was my second one after about 15 years. My son also attended. We found it very useful. Thanks a lot for a wonderful seminar."
Eoin Treacy's view Thank
you for reminding me of this contract
which is listed in Zhengzhou (ZCE) and can be found in the Soft Commodities
section of the Chart Library. The ticker is VV1. I would also like to thank
you both for your lively contributions to stimulating debate focused on cotton
and your native Turkey. I bought the book you recommended; "The Travels
of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy" over the weekend and I look forward
to reading it.
Cotton trended steadily higher from the March 2009 lows to test the pre-crisis highs near 80¢ by April; finding support near the 200-day MA on a number of occasions throughout the advance. Prices accelerated higher following the last retest of the MA in July, breaking out of a 37-year range and by last week had hit their highest level since at least 1962.
The four-month uptrend was a picture of consistency before peaking on November 12th near the psychological 150¢. There were three equal sized reactions, one above another and while the prices were becoming increasingly overextended relative to the MA, it took the key reversal on the 12th and subsequent follow through to form a larger reaction and indicate the onset of a corrective phase.
While this has been an important period for cotton prices, where they find support will be interesting. A breakout from such a long trading range could signal the end of the inflation-adjusted secular downtrend. If prices find support above or in the region of the 90-100¢ region, it would indicate sustained demand for cotton at elevated prices and would further reinforce the return of inflationary pressures.
At the drinks reception following the seminar you pointed out that textile manufacturers are beginning to move out of Turkey and are heading to Africa, particularly Egypt. I agree this is a further signal that parts of Africa are entering the initial stages of industrialization.