"US$300 trillion? From 60 trillion in 20 years? That's more than an 8% compound rate of growth non-stop for 20 years. I doubt it. Just this alone tells me the author is way off the mark.

"WHAT YOU THINK?"

David Fuller's view The $300t forecast included inflation. The authors also included these inflation-adjusted estimates:

By 2030 - the time period for this analysis - we believe that the global economy will have grown significantly further, reaching:

A size of USD 308trn. This would be the actual size of the world economy - in nominal terms - based on our growth and inflation forecasts. To allow further comparison with today, one could adjust for inflation, and for currency shifts.

Keeping prices and currencies the same as now, the increase in the size of the world economy would be to USD 129trn by 2030. This is still impressive.

If we allow for the likelihood that the Chinese yuan (CNY) and Indian rupee (INR), amongst the major emerging currencies, are likely to appreciate versus the dollar, then a further adjustment to reflect more credible currency moves suggests that the world economy would grow to USD 143trn. Note that this still keeps exchange rates steady both within and across most emerging regions, and only really reflects appreciation of a handful of currencies of large emerging economies. By 2030 we assume the CNY will have appreciated from 6.64 this year to 4.39, and the INR from 45.5 this year to 35 in 2030.

The choice of 2030 is not because that need be the end of this super-cycle. It was more a reflection of the desire to have a picture - and with it forecasts - of what the world would look like in a generation. That is sufficiently far ahead to make the forecast long-term, but not too far ahead to be beyond forecast horizons.

So, by 2030, the world economy, on the projections laid out here, would rise to USD 308trn, which would equate to USD 129trn in today's prices and dollars, and would be USD 143trn, keeping prices constant but allowing for some emerging-market currency appreciation.

I maintain that this report is one of the most important that I have ever received. Most understandably focus on the short to medium-term. Standard Chartered offer additional perspective in a hypothesis that I think is very intelligently presented.

I cannot post the actual PDF but you can access it via the link in Monday's copy.