Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

September 27 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on Latin American ETFs
"Can you please add the following Peru, Chile and Colombia ETFs to the library please EPU ECH GXG?"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for these suggestions. Some of the smaller Latin American commodity producing markets have been among the best global performers this year, so the debut of these ETFs is a useful innovation for investors seeking to access this region. What are the charts telling us though?

Chile broke upwards to new all time highs in December 2009 and has improved considerably on that performance since. Reactions within this impressive 2-year uptrend have been limited to ranging consolidations allowing for a comfortable mean reversion towards the 200-day MA. Given the current overextension of approximately 18% relative to the MA at least another reversionary corrective phase is due. The most recent four-month portion of the medium-term uptrend remains consistent with a sequence of small reactions one above another which have all consolidated in a 150 - 200 point range. The present pullback is a little smaller than those which have occurred previously. A sustained move back below 4600 would mark a larger reaction and probably signal the onset of a medium-term pause.

Colombia also hit a new all time high in December 2009 and successfully reasserted the overall uptrend in March. The Index has sustained a progression of higher reaction lows for nearly 2 years but the pace of the uptrend has increased over the last few months leading to an overextension relative to the 200-day MA. The consistency of the most recent portion of the medium-term uptrend remains consistent and the present reaction is not larger than that posted in August. A sustained move below 14,000 would signal a deeper reaction and question the short-term uptrend's consistency. However, a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question the medium-term uptrend.

Peru has been ranging in the region of 15,000 since June 2009 and broke upwards three weeks ago. While the Index has posted positive returns for the last 10 consecutive weeks a sustained move back below 15,000 would now be required to question medium-term upside potential.

The above ETFs will be interesting investment vehicles following the next mean reversion corrections for the indices concerned.

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