Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

September 13 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on trading and self reliance
"The research note attached is from Southern Cross equities. The writer Charlie Aitken has a daily report that is widely followed by small investors. To give Charlie some credit he was bearish early this year (at the right time) but a couple of months ago turned bullish saying markets were cheap.

"I like David's commentary this morning [Ed. Thursday's Comment of the Day] I have been contending for some time (especially to my investment clients) we are in an extended consolidation going back almost 12 months. The current rally over the last few weeks is working out the extreme bearish price action of the last 5 or 6 months. I find it amusing of late that we have commentaries referring back to the issues of early 2009 and that nothing has changed - more doom and gloom. Such talk makes me more bullish.

"I hope to get back to London next summer to again do the Chart Seminar. I found the content very good and the discussion stimulating.

"I appreciate all the great work you and David do. I don't always agree with you. We all must find our own way through markets. Relying on others is not a good idea.

"Markets continue to be very kind to me. I am pleased, the tax man is pleased, my wife is pleased and my children are very pleased. This very long run of successful trading continues to surprise me. I do have loses from time to time but I have been fortunate to keep them small. My profitable trades have been very rewarding.

"There is going to be a lot of money to be made next year in shorting bonds futures. I am content to wait until that sell signal is confirmed. I don't need to pick the bottom in bond yields to go short. I made huge profits in the early 90's in bonds when I traded markets professionally. At that time I made so much money trading bonds it dwarfed the profits of the IB I worked for.

"I keep reading about your local economy. Difficult time for Irish economically but a very nice place to visit."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this enlightened email and the attached report. I look forward to welcoming you to another Chart Seminar in the not too distant future and to your contributions which are sure to be of value. The Chart Seminar will next be conducted in London on November 18th & 19th.and the early booking rate of £875 +VAT will be available until September 30th.

Congratulations on your successful trading record. I agree that we all need to make our own way in the investment world. As you know our theme is Empowerment Through Knowledge. We would be worried if everyone agreed with us and do not tell people what do, rather we attempt to decipher what the market is telling us as best we can and tell our subscribers exactly what we are doing with our own money.

An increasing number of stock market indices are breaking to new three-month, recovery and all time highs which should help investors put the remarkable bearish commentary which has permeated markets for much of the last month into perspective. Bond prices have now clearly posted larger pullbacks than any seen in the course of their 6-month uptrends, further supporting the view that they have hit at least medium-term peaks.

Leighton Holdings currently yields 6.24% and I also agree it is an interesting play on capex growth in the mining and infrastructure sectors. The share found support in the region of the upper side of the base from July and has pulled away from the A$30 area over the last few weeks. It has sustained a progression of higher reaction lows since early July and these would need to be taken out with a sustained move below A$31.60 to question scope for continued upside.

Ireland has had a difficult couple of years but remains a wonderful place to visit and the price of hotels has become a lot more competitive as a result of the recession.

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