Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

August 31 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On the Singapore dollar as a refuge
"I know this is a sales letter, but the Singapore dollar is mooted here as the antidote to the failing US$.

"I thought David Fuller might like to comment on the strengths and weaknesses inherent in this approach to finding a refuge from a potential US dollar collapse."

David Fuller's view I do not think that the USD will collapse, not least because this would be too damaging for the USA's trade partners while the greenback remains the world's reserve currency. Nevertheless, the US Federal Reserve continues to print money faster than most other central banks so the US dollar remains a soft currency more often than not. Therefore I am in general agreement with the article from International Living for which you provided a link. Here is a section:

A hedge fund trader who is a friend of mine recently described it to me as an "Asian version of the Swiss Franc". This is a big compliment. Switzerland's currency has been strong for decades, and is well known as a safe haven in times of trouble.

The reason that Switzerland, and now Singapore, have strong currencies is that these countries live within their means. While the U.S. borrows and spends, these countries earn and save. This is how people get rich, and it's the same for countries. No one got rich by spending money faster than they earned it.

Last year, Singapore's current account balance-the net money coming into or going out of the country-was a surplus of $26 billion. That was just behind Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter. By comparison, the U.S. had a deficit of $420 billion!

Singapore has very low external debt. That means it owes little to people overseas. Again this is the opposite of the U.S., which owes trillions to places like China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

And foreign exchange reserves-the country's rainy day piggy bank-work out at $40,000 for every man, woman and child.
In the future, Singapore has a crucial advantage over Switzerland. Switzerland sits in the middle of the "old continent" of Europe, which looks set for a decade of slow growth and stagnation.

But Singapore sits in the middle of Asia-in fact right on some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. And Asia is home to 60% of the world's population, and with many decades of fast economic growth ahead of it.

This means that over time the Singaporean dollar is likely to gain value against the U.S. dollar. In fact over the past five years it's gained over 23% in value, measured in U.S. dollars.

For decades I have said that Singapore has benefited from the best economic governance of any country on the planet. I will go further: Singapore is the most developed economy in the world, in terms of economic governance, even better than Switzerland which sold most of its gold. Switzerland has also bowed to pressure from the USA and EU over banking secrecy.

While Singapore's vastly superior fiscal position should ensure that the S$ is a firm currency more often than not, I will repeat another frequent comment from Fullermoney: No country wants a strong currency in this economic environment, although some countries need a weak currency more than others.

Also, Singapore is a tiny country, dependent on Malaysia for its water and in a region increasingly dominated by China. Therefore, while Singapore wins in terms of governance, it is vulnerable geopolitically. For these reasons the venerable Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's founder, wants a strong US presence both politically, economically and militarily.

I am not anticipating any immediate problems of serious consequence in the Asian region but ownership and drilling rights for oil and gas in the South China Sea may be a future flashpoint, as I have said before.

In other words, we live in an uncertain world, where safety can be in the eye of the beholder and more importantly, ephemeral. As investors, we should remember one of the oldest and simplest of adages: Don't put all your eggs in one basket. We should also remember that crises create opportunities for investors who know their market history and remember that buy-low-sell-high remains a very successful strategy.

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