Email of day (2)
Comment of the Day

June 25 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of day (2)

on timber REITs:
"Hope this email finds you both well. Does the collective have a library of Forestry/Timber REIT? Would most appreciate your comment on this sector?”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this question and for your participation at the New York venue for the Chart Seminar in April. I last reviewed timber companies on July 21st 2011, in the aftermath of the Sino-Forest bankruptcy when a number of timber companies suffered contagion regardless of the fact that they had no exposure to Chinese forestry.

Over the course of the last year lumber has been ranging in a volatile fashion, albeit with a mild upward bias. It has returned to test the region of the March lows where it has found at least temporary support. A sustained move below $250 would now be required to question potential for a further unwind of the short-term oversold condition.

Rayonier (3.68%) pulled back gently from its new high to test the region of the 200-day MA where it appears to have found at least short-term support. A sustained move below $41.40 would be required to question potential for some additional higher to lateral ranging.

Weyerhaeuser (2.96%) has held a progression of higher major reaction lows since early 2009 and has also recently found at least short-term support in the region of its 200-day MA. It will need to hold above the recent low near $18.60 if the benefit of the doubt is to continue to be given to potential for higher to lateral ranging.

Plum Creek (4.45%) has been largely rangebound since early 2010 and found support three weeks ago in the region of the lower boundary.

Potlatch (4.88%) has been trending lower over the last year and will need to sustain a move above $32 to break the progression of lower rally highs and suggest a return to demand dominance beyond the short-term.

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