Elizabeth Warren's potential Presidential candidacy
Comment of the Day

October 14 2019

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Elizabeth Warren's potential Presidential candidacy

Thanks to a subscriber for this snippet of an article by Niall Ferguson for the Sunday times.

Eoin Treacy's view

Medicare for all is a laudable aspiration, but has the potential to be murderously difficult to implement. The healthcare sector employs millions of people and accounts for 18% of the US economy. Every doctor and dentist’s office in America have at least one person handling insurance claims, collecting co-pays, sending out bills etc. With a fully public option most of these administrative staff would be surplus to requirement. In other words, the clear risk from a fully public healthcare option would be recession even if the long-term benefit of cutting back on waste is a net positive.

The Nasdaq Biotech Index has been rolling over for nearly three years. It is currently steadying from the 3000 level but needs to sustain a move back above the trend mean to question formation development.

The S&P500 Healthcare Index has developed a triangular pattern over the last year. That suggests a great deal of optionality to an emphatic breakout either up to down.

Both United Health and Anthem have top formation development characteristics.

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