Egypt Stocks Fall Most in 2 Years; Pound Hit as Protests Persist
Comment of the Day

January 28 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Egypt Stocks Fall Most in 2 Years; Pound Hit as Protests Persist

This article by Ahmed A Namatalla and Zahra Hankir for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
"The international investment community has taken a decision that what's happening in Egypt is serious and therefore are exiting their positions," said Mohammed Ali Yasin, chief investment officer at Abu Dhabi-based financial services company CAPM Investments PJSC.

Cairo is under heavy security for a second day to prevent the repeat of the Jan. 25 protests, when thousands took to the streets of the capital and major cities to denounce President Hosni Mubarak, inspired by the revolt that toppled Tunisia's leader. Groups organizing the protests, including the National Association for Change, are calling for another round of protests tomorrow, Abdel Rahman Youssef, a leading figure in the opposition movement, said by text message.

Eoin Treacy's view China has long demonstrated that populations are willing to make massive concessions in terms of personal freedoms if they have jobs, food, shelter and see their standard of living improving. Egypt has a huge young population, high unemployment, inflationary pressures have been mounting and the Tunisian protests have been a catalyst for popular protest.

Here is a link to a Xinhua New Agency story on similar protests erupting in Yemen.

The Tunisian stock market, which had been one of the better performers over the last two years, has been closed since January 14th. The Egyptian Index has been ranging for more than a year and plummeted to test the lower side of that congestion yesterday. With the internet having been turned off, mobile phone coverage restricted and riot police facing off against protestors there is significant potential for additional downside to the stock market if it reopens on Monday.

Every crisis provides an opportunity. Middle Eastern stock markets had recently begun to attract investor interest as potential catch-up candidates. The current political turmoil has at least delayed that emerging trend. Turkey has been marketed as the gateway to the Middle East and might therefore be susceptible to some contagion if this crisis spreads to other countries.

However, on a fundamental level Turkey is not comparable to Tunisia, Egypt or Yemen. It is a democracy, standards of governance have been improving, economic growth is robust, the currency is stable and rampant inflation has been brought under control.

The National 100 Index broke successfully above 60,000 in September and hit a medium-term peak near 70,000 in late October. It continues to consolidate above the 2007 peak and has recently pulled back to test the 200-day MA. So far this is a relatively "normal" reversion to the mean.

On the chance that Turkey experiences a deeper pullback as a result of contagion from other regional markets, it is likely to provide a viable entry opportunity once support has been found, for those seeking to participate over a medium to longer-term time horizon.

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