EC Official Denies Greek Government Statement That a Deal Is Close
Comment of the Day

May 27 2015

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

EC Official Denies Greek Government Statement That a Deal Is Close

This article by Nikos Chrysoloras, Eleni Chrepa, Rebecca Christie for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

The euro gained 0.2 percent to $1.0889 as of 4:58 p.m. London time. Greek two-year notes rose, pushing the yield 114 basis points lower to 23.77 percent. Greek shares also climbed, with the benchmark Athens Stock Exchange gaining 3.6 percent at the close of trading.

“Everyone was scared Greece was close to leaving the euro zone,” said John Plassard, vice president at Mirabaud Securities LLP in Geneva. “Just some hope is pushing the market up. They seem to be trying to do anything possible to keep Greece in the euro zone.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, who spoke Wednesday with Tsipras for the second time in less than a week, said he’ll push for movement in the standoff at a Group of Seven gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors in Germany.

“It’s time for everyone to park the rhetoric on the side and look for that sensible place where accommodation can be found,” Lew said at an event in London. “No doubt the worst and deepest consequence would be to Greece. But it’s profoundly in the interest of the European and global economy for the accident to be avoided.”

Eoin Treacy's view

How the Europeans are going to resolve the Greek tragedy is still weighing on sentiment. Since they have patched over disputes at the last minute on every other occasion the market is beginning to price in the potential that this time will be no different.

Greece’s ability to make the next payment to the IMF is contingent on funds being released from their bailout package to fund it. This is a robbing Peter to pay Paul strategy but is unfortunately the reality of the Eurozone’s approach to the crisis. It means that the reforms demanded of Greece are where the crux of the argument lies and they will have to deliver if they are to expect leniency.

Greek government bonds are perhaps the most relevant indication of sentiment towards the potential for a solution. The 10-year yield pulled back from 12% this week and remains in a process of mean reversion. A sustained move below 10% would be required to question the medium-term progression of higher reaction lows and supply dominance. This suggests that while some short-term optimism is evident at present, a more concrete set of proposals will be required to break the medium-term trend.

The Euro pulled back from the region of $1.15 last week having unwound the majority of its oversold condition relative to the 200-day MA. It is now back in an area where support needs to be found if the progression of higher reaction lows from the March low are to hold. However a sustained move above the trend mean would be required to question medium-term potential for further weakness.

An inverse correlation has been evident between the weakness of the Euro and the strength of Eurozone stock markets. This was retarded somewhat by worries relating to Greece but just about all Eurozone markets firmed today as sentiment improved. Considering just how swiftly stock markets rallied in the early part of the year it would be rash to conclude the process of consolidation that began little more than a month ago is over already. The most likely scenario is that we see some additional ranging between the April peak and the trend mean before a move to additional new highs can be sustained. 

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