Eastern Europe
Comment of the Day

August 17 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Eastern Europe

Eoin Treacy's view The newer members of the Eurozone were heavily dependent on investment flows from Europe's creditor nations. When liquidity dried up and the flow of funds was redirected toward Bunds, Gilts and Swiss sovereign bonds, the stock markets of a number of Eastern European countries experienced steep declines. However as short covering begins to take hold, these markets have been some of the first to react.

The Turkish National 100 Index found support near 50000 between August and January and now exhibits a rounding characteristic consistent with accumulation. A sustained move below 54,000 would now/ be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Estonia has been an outperformer within the Eurozone. The TALSE Index has held a progression of higher reaction lows since October, most recently finding support in the region of the 200-day MA from mid-June. While becoming somewhat overbought in the short term, a sustained move below 600 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. The Latvian Index has held a progression of incrementally higher reaction lows since October.

The Polish Index pushed back above the 200-day MA two weeks ago and is now testing the upper side of its yearlong range. A clear downward dynamic would be required to question potential for a successful upward break.

The Hungarian Index has held a progression of higher reaction lows since October and a sustained move below 16000 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

The Czech and Romanian markets remain largely rangebound but are rallying from their lower sides.

The Russian Micex Index retested the October low in May and has since rallied back to the test the region of the 200-day MA. However, while the medium-term downtrend lost momentum over the last six months, it needs to sustain a move above 1600 to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.

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