Draghi Takes Aim at Italy as Recession Scars Euro Area
Comment of the Day

August 08 2014

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Draghi Takes Aim at Italy as Recession Scars Euro Area

This article by Stefan Riecher and Alessandro Speciale for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

Draghi, 66, indicated that the lack of reforms scares off investors, citing Italy’s “significantly low” level of private investment. He said that while that’s true in the euro area as a whole compared with other parts of the world, it can be attributed in part to inadequate structural reforms.

“Certainly it’s not the cost of capital, because interest rates, nominally and real interest rates, have been low and in some parts of the euro area are negative, have been negative for quite a long time,” Draghi said. “The general uncertainty that the lack of structural reforms produces is a very powerful factor that discourages investments.”

The ECB kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.15 percent yesterday and held the deposit rate at minus 0.1 percent, and Draghi reiterated that borrowing costs will stay low for an extended period. Policy makers announced an historic package of stimulus measures in June to fight the threat of deflation.

Eoin Treacy's view

Without the ability to devalue their currencies Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland and Portugal are faced with the challenge of instituting policy and regulatory reform in order to boost productivity and improve competitiveness, particularly versus their northern Eurozone neighbours. It’s a painful task and impossible without the ECBs continued support of their debt and banking sectors. Some have made more progress than others but in return for assistance, governments have little choice but to listen to Mario Draghi when he not so subtly tells them what to do.

The Italian MIB Index hit a medium-term peak in June and has since posted its largest reaction since 2012; falling for seven consecutive sessions until today’s steadying. Considering the fact that it is now trading well below the 200-day MA, the most benign outcome is for a reversionary rally followed by some support building.

Today’s firming of the Euro suggests some of the harder hit Eurozone markets may be close to at least short term lows as bargain hunters begin to approach the market. 

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