Dow Caps Longest Rally Since 1996 as Retail Sales Gain
Comment of the Day

March 13 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Dow Caps Longest Rally Since 1996 as Retail Sales Gain

Here is a brief section from this informative report by Bloomberg
While the S&P 500 remains less than one percent below its record, the Russell 2000 Index (RTY) of smaller companies advanced 0.4 percent to an all-time high of 943.90 and the Dow Jones Transportation Average climbed 1.6 percent to a record 6,232.59 today. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index also topped its previous high, adding 0.5 percent to 1,171.95.

The S&P 500 is valued at 15.4 times reported earnings, a 22-month high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's still 7.2 percent below an average of 16.6 over the last decade. The Dow is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1, the highest level in almost two years and 11 percent below its 10- year average of 15.8.

David Fuller's view I cannot recall any other four-year bull market which has so frequently been called a 'bear market rally' by Wall Street's pundits. US equities are not cheap today, but there are plenty of times when they have been more expensive, as Bloomberg points out in the paragraph above. The absence of high fives on Wall Street and the infrequent popping of champagne corks in its watering holes also suggest that this is no bubble, despite all the quantitative easing (QE).

The US stock market is registering a short-term overbought reading but there are plenty of bullish chart patterns if you have been monitoring Eoin's many reviews, particularly among the Dividend Aristocrats and Autonomies, most of which are multinational companies.

To state the obvious, bear market rallies do not extend to new all time highs, so the indices mentioned above are worth a look. I have selected 20-year monthly charts for perspective: S&P 500, Russell 2000, DJ Transports, AMEX MS Cyclical and the Dow Jones Industrials.

Four of these five Indices are at new all-time highs, and the S&P 500 is within striking distance. Yes, they are temporarily overbought, to repeat this point, so we should expect a reaction and consolidation before long. However, I would continue to give these overall upward trends the benefit of the doubt, at least until their progressions of higher reaction lows are broken and prices fall back beneath their MAs, which also turn downwards.

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