Dollar on Pace for Best Day in Nearly Two Months
Comment of the Day

May 11 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Dollar on Pace for Best Day in Nearly Two Months

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section: 

The US dollar is on pace for its biggest rise in nearly two months as concerns about a slowing US economy, hawkish policy messaging, a US debt-ceiling standoff and the solvency of regional banks supported havens. The pound fell after the Bank of England lifted its policy rate 25 basis points and indicated more hikes may be required to slow inflation.

Eoin Treacy's view

The dollar firmed today as more of risk-off move than any other factor. When investors seek the haven of cash they end up holding dollars. Bond yields also compressed as some of that cash was redeployed in the expectation that during a recession, inflationary pressures are likely to go into reverse.

That took a particular toll on silver which posted a clear downward dynamic. When I initiated my long silver position, I deliberated kept is small specifically because of this risk. Having raced higher to break the medium-term sequence of lower rally highs, some consolidation is likely. I intend to use that weakness to increase the position. The Dollar has scope to rally in a risk-off environment but that is only likely to last for as long as it takes the Fed to act to cut rates. 

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