Dividend Aristocrats
Comment of the Day

December 02 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Dividend Aristocrats

Eoin Treacy's view PDF lists of US, European and Canadian dividend aristocrats and Australian high yielders appeared in Comment of the Day on November 15th. Yesterday, I reviewed a number of US and European companies on these lists which have either found support in the region of their 200-day MAs or are hitting new highs and additionally offer exposure to the growth of the global middle class. Today, I will expand that review to focus on similar companies in Canada and Australia.

In Canada, a number of banks and financials remain in the dividend aristocrat category because they have not had to cut their dividends. Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Nova Scotia have been ranging in close proximity of their 2007 peaks for much of the year. They are now pressuring the upper side of their ranges and sustained moves below their respective 200-day MAs would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Canada Western Bank broke upwards to new recovery highs this week and a sustained move below C$24 would be required to check medium-term upside potential.

ShawCor Ltd broke out of a yearlong range in early October and continues to consolidate above C$30. A sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near C$28.50 would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Transcontinental has a relatively similar pattern. Canadian Natural Resources and Pason Systems are both now breaking out of a similarly lengthy range.

Both Telus Corp, Canadian Pacific Railway and Canadian National Railway remain in steady, consistent medium-term uptrends and would need to take out their progressions of higher reaction lows to question upside potential. Transcanada appears to be finding support in the region of the 200-day MA.

Canadian Tire Corp ranged below C$60 for more than a year but broke upward four weeks ago and a clear downward dynamic would be required to check current scope for additional upside. (Also see Comment of the Day on November 10th)

Elsewhere in the Canadian list of reliable dividend payers, pipeline companies such as Enbridge and dairy producer Saputo continue to perform spectacularly well but while consistent, they are susceptible to a reversion towards the mean. (Also see Comment of the Day on October 1st and August 10th respectively.


In Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac Banking have all found at least short-term support at the bottom of their respective ranges and would need to take out their recent lows to question potential for some additional upside. ANZ has held its six-month progression of higher reaction lows and Bendigo Bank is testing the upper side of a more than yearlong first step above the early 2009 base.

Coal and Allied has paused in the region of the 2008 high but a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Telstra has been a serial underperformer and does not offer much exposure to Asian regional growth. However, it has an impressive indicated net yield of 9.93% and recently found support in the region of A$3.25. It rallied impressively last week and a sustained move to new reaction lows would be required to question scope for some additional higher to lateral ranging. (Also see Comment of the Day on November 8th).

Australian Pipeline Trust retains a consistent medium-term upward trajectory and would need to sustain a move below the 200-day MA to question upside potential.

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