Eoin Treacy's view The two-tier evolution of the global economy with progressing nations, primarily situated in the population centres of Asia and commodity producing Latin America, outperforming the more established economies in the USA, Europe and Japan looks set to be a long-term theme for investors. Among the so-called 'developed' economies, companies exposed to domestic growth are more likely to struggle while those positioned to benefit from the growth of the global consumer appear better positioned to perform.

When companies with global franchises and solid growth also pay reliable dividends, then they fall into a privileged category. S&P produce lists of shares they call aristocrats which have held or increased dividends for consecutive years. Among these, those most leveraged to global growth fulfil the criteria required for Fullermoney theme membership. (Please see Comment of the Day on November 15th for lists of USA, European, Canadian and Australian dividend aristocrats).

Most stock markets have been consolidating their impressive advance from the September lows for at least the last three weeks. The result has been that a large number of shares are considerably closer to their 200-day MAs today than this time last month and some are rallying from those trend means.

In the USA, Exxon Mobil has rallied to break the medium-term progression of lower rally highs and a sustained move below the recent low near $68 would be required to question current scope for additional upside. Chubb Corp has been consolidating above $55 September and a sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term upside potential. 3M has been ranging below the $90 level for much of the year but is currently rallying from the 200-day MA and a sustained move below that level would be required to question scope for some additional upside. Dover Corp has been consolidating in the region of the prior high for the last two months. A sustained move below $50 would be required to question scope for further upside. Brown-Forman and Sigma Aldrich have relatively similar patterns and have already broken upwards. Sherwin Williams has been consolidating mostly above the 2007 peak since April and has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on a number of occasions. A sustained move below $70 would be required to question upside potential. McGraw-Hill pulled back to test the 200-day MA over the last month but has found support and would need to sustain a move below the MA to question scope for continued higher to lateral ranging. Kraft Foods has pulled back to test the 200-day MA and a sustained move below $29 would be required to question medium-term scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.

In Europe, Hermes, following a very sharp decline, has found at least short-term support in the region of the 200-day MA. Vodafone rallied impressively from the May low and found at least short-term support above the MA today. Pearson has also firmed in the region of the 200-day MA and the whole range above 900p could be viewed as a first step above the long-term base. Tate & Lyle has been consolidating above 500p since late October and a sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term upside potential. (Also see Comment of the Day on September 17th) Hennes & Mauritz pulled back sharply from the early October peak but has found support in the region of the 200-day MA and a sustained move below SEK220 would be needed to question potential for further higher to lateral ranging. Nestle has been ranging above CHF55 for the last month and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Although Siemens has not had as reliable a dividend policy as the above companies, no review of European blue-chips would be complete without it. The share remains in a consistent, staircase uptrend and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to begin to question medium-term upside potential.

Of the dividend aristocrats listed in Comment of the Day on November 15th a number remain quite overextended relative to their MAs and as such are probably more susceptible to a pullback / consolidation than the above listed shares. I will review some Canadian and Australian companies tomorrow.