Diapers
Comment of the Day

November 16 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Diapers

Eoin Treacy's view It might be a messy business but the baby care industry is in a major bull market. With the global population cruising through 7 billion, demand for baby products is rising. Concurrently, new parents, particularly in Asia, have never been in such a good position to afford the products that make caring for small children that bit less burdensome.

I mentioned on my return from China last month that it was the first time I have seen someone in the countryside using a disposable diaper. Hengan International is the leading Chinese diaper and sanitary towel producer. The share has shown impressive relative strength, is an S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrat (1.78%) and is rallying towards its 2010 peak. A sustained move below HK$60 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

This article on the Indian diaper market highlights two S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats: Kimberly Clark (3.95%) and Proctor & Gamble (3.3%). Kimberly Clark (Huggies) has been largely rangebound since 2001. However, it hit a new all time high four weeks ago and a sustained move below $65 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Proctor & Gamble (Pampers) has been largely rangebound for nearly two years. A sustained move below $60 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional higher to lateral ranging.

Godrej Consumer Products sells the Snuggies range of diapers in India. It has been ranging, in a relatively gradually mean reversion since late last year but needs to sustain a move to new highs to reassert the medium-term uptrend.

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