Delta seeks surcharge hike despite oil price drop
Comment of the Day

June 22 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Delta seeks surcharge hike despite oil price drop

This article from business World online may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“Notice is hereby given that Delta Air has filed with the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) a petition for authority to impose upward adjustment of fuel surcharge on international passenger tickets,” the document dated June 11 read.

According to the notice, Delta Air wants to increase it surcharge fee to $90 from $75 for flights between Philippines and Japan. It also sought CAB's approval to increase the surcharge to $170 from $150 for flights between the Philippines and the United States.

Fuel surcharges are part of ticket prices that allow carriers to cover the cost of rising jet fuel prices, said to account for the bulk of airlines' operating costs.

The petitions come even as jet fuel prices have declined by 5.7% to $122.6 per barrel as of May 25, data from the International Air Transport Association showed.

Eoin Treacy's view Airlines are exposed both to the slowing of the global economy and high oil prices. While the former is still a considerable issue, oil prices have moderated over the last few weeks. US listed airlines in particular are outperforming.

Allegiant Travel rebounded impressively from its mid 2008 lows to post a new all- time high by later that year. It ranged with a mild upward bias until mid-2011 and successfully completed the range in April 2012. The share is becoming increasingly susceptible to mean reversion as it continues to extend the already impressive advance Alaska Air Group found support in the region of the 200-day MA from late May and a sustained move below $31 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Panama's national airline Copa Holdings also remains in a relatively consistent uptrend and found support in the region of the 200-day MA this week.

United Continental displays a rounding characteristic over the last year consistent with accumulation. US Airways broke out of its more than three-year base in May and continues to extend the advance. Delta Air Lines has held a progression of high reaction lows since July. It found support in the region of the 200-day MA and the psychological $10 over the last couple of weeks.

In Europe, Easyjet has been consolidating above its 2010 highs since late April as it unwinds the overextension relative to the 200-day MA. Ryanair has a relatively similar pattern, Air France, Deutsche Lufthansa and British Airways have all found at least short-term support of late but will need to sustain moves back above their respective MAs to suggest returns to medium-term demand dominance.

The majority of Asia airlines remain in medium-term downtrends but share the commonality of having rallied back to test their respective MAs. They will need to sustain moves above their respective trend means to break progressions of lower rally highs and suggest a return to demand dominance beyond the short term. Air Nippon Airways, China Airways, Korean Air and China East Air share a variation on this pattern. Qantas has found at least short-term support following an accelerated decline but will need to hold above A$1 on the current pullback to help bolster confidence.

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