Deepak Lalwani's India Report
Comment of the Day

October 18 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Deepak Lalwani's India Report

My thanks to the author for this informative report. Here is a sample:
India removed a cap on foreign investment in single-brand retail investment in January by allowing 100% foreign ownership. Since then Sweden's IKEA and UK's shoe retailer Pavers applied for permission to enter India through a wholly-owned business. Indian media reports that US accessories manufacturer Fossil Inc is to enter the Indian market through a 100% owned company. The firm already has a distribution agreement to sell leather goods, jewellery, watches and handbags in India. Last month51% foreign ownership in multi-brand retail was allowed. The momentum to enter India's $ 450bn retail market will increase.

Finance Minister Mr Chidambaram hopes that a proposal will be cleared soon by the cabinet to reduce the bureaucracy and regulatory hurdles that delay the start of badly needed infrastructure projects. A National Investment Board (NIB) headed by PM Dr Singh is planned. It is seen as the boldest attempt yet to clear infrastructure bottlenecks that have held back economic growth. Poor infrastructure, according to Government estimates, shaves 1-2% from economic growth. Government officials say such delays have held up projects worth about $40bn in the power, roads, coal and mining sectors alone. It is estimated that to start an infrastructure project an average of 56 permissions from different federal, state and local agencies is required. This can easily take 24 months. And, often much longer. India's investment rate has fallen to 32% from 38% in 2007-08 (before the global financial crisis). Hence, foreign and domestic private capital is badly needed. But, with a maze of regulatory hurdles and inordinate bureaucratic delays foreign investors are not rushing in to invest in India's infrastructure. Unless there are "bankable" projects - ie all clearances in place. The NIB will not be a magic wand to sort out all delays as it deals with clearances at Central Government level. State Governments often create long delays as they pander to local vested interests. But, an excellent start compared to existing conditions.

David Fuller's view It is all very exciting if you are interested in India. The country's undoubtedly capable but previously tired looking and stumbling leaders, Prime Minister Manmohan and to be fair, newly appointed Finance Minister P Chidambaram have morphed into the Usain Bolt and Yohan Blake of economic governance. In other words, speedy to the point of all conquering but mercifully without the banal hand gestures.

If and when the international business and financial community thinks of India - we either try not to or are obsessed with it - confidence is everything and it has been running high since June, as you can see from the Sensex (weekly & daily) and the Bombay Banks Index (weekly & daily). The banks usually lead and a consolidation of last month's strong gains is occurring within a tight range, suggesting that demand is currently matching profit taking at this level. It would now take a close beneath 12,900 to question current scope for sideways to higher trading.

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