Deepak Lalwani's India Report
Comment of the Day

June 13 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Deepak Lalwani's India Report

My thanks to the author for his informative report. Here is a brief sample:
In an effort to revive economic growth the Indian Government wants to push ahead with major transport and power projects in this fiscal year to March 2013. Prime Minister Dr Singh said India aims to award 9,500 kms of road projects and commission three new airports. While these announcements helped lift infrastructure and other shares on the stock market some key points remain unanswered. Because the devil, in India, lies in the detail. In execution. Many ground realities, which have stalled existing projects, have not been resolved. Local media estimates that about $ 27 bn of projects have stalled because of bottlenecks and hurdles that include slow land acquisition and environmental clearances. Decision making in Government has been paralysed because officials are afraid to clear decisions after a raft of corruption scandals have been exposed. Policy paralysis has contributed to the decelerating economic growth and holds back India from becoming an industrialised nation.

David Fuller's view India's government has certainly had sufficient wakeup calls over the last two years. The frustrating fact is that India's economy and stock market could really take off once again with some effective macro governance. That is not rocket science and should be achievable. Most people of influence within India know what needs to be done. Without some evidence of consistency and economically sensible policies India will continue to lose out on the FDI it needs. This would be a tragedy for a vast, young, mainly poor but highly aspirational population.

Interestingly, India's Sensex Index stepped back from the brink last week with a clear upward dynamic in the form of a weekly key reversal. There is some potential resistance above 17,000 but a close beneath 15,750 would now be required to offset current scope for sideways to higher ranging. In a potentially significant outperformance, the Bombay Banks Index saw an even bigger upward dynamic last week and is back above its 200-day MA. A close beneath 10,400 would now be necessary to reverse this improvement and reaffirm the medium-term downward bias.

My thanks to a subscriber for this informative CNBC video with an Indian investment manager.


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