Debate on China between Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report and Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics
Comment of the Day

November 08 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Debate on China between Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report and Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics

My thanks to a subscriber for this excellent video from Reuters Insider. It is lengthy but worth the time if you are interested in China and wish to learn more about it. It was recorded earlier in the year but is just as relevant today, in my opinion.

David Fuller's view China will have its booms and busts, bull and bear markets just like any other country.

However, while I respect the China specific information from Arthur Kroeber and the historic, global perspective of Marc Faber, neither mentioned what is the key investment consideration, in my view.

It is monetary policy, of course. If China is tightening its monetary policy, as it did over most of the previous two years until recently, then its stock market faces a stiff headwind. Conversely, when it has an expansionary monetary policy this will be a tailwind for equities.

The same applies to the monetary policies of any other country and its probable effect on that nation's stock market. When I ignore this historic and logical reality, usually because I am hoping that there will not be too much monetary tightening - not an analytical view because it is the trend of that policy which counts - I invariably pay the price.

With China's central bank injecting liquidity once again, now is a time to be long, in my opinion.

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