Death is a good living as Dignity profits rise
Comment of the Day

November 16 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Death is a good living as Dignity profits rise

This article from the Evening Standard may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
It's an unavoidably mawkish fact, but death is one business that should be entirely
immune to recession .

Funeral service provider Dignity's third-quarter results today offered further evidence that catering for the inevitable can be a growth industry, with profit up 10% to Pounds 53.4 million.

That result come from revenues up 9% at Pounds 169 million, a profit margin few sectors can match.

Eoin Treacy's view Widespread anxiety about whether the fiscal cliff will or will not be allowed to occur or to what extent new taxes will affect investment returns continue to roil markets. This brings to mind the phrase often attributed to Benjamin Franklin "'In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes." . While the uncertainty over tax rates is a continued worry I thought it might be interesting to review funeral services companies since the represent one of the other sureties in life. (Also see Comment of the Day on July 9th).

Not only is death a certainty but it represents a growth trend as the baby boomer generation continues to age, regardless of prolonged life expectancy. Dignity hit a new all-time high yesterday and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.

In the USA, Service Corp (1.79%) found at least short-term support yesterday in the region of $13 as it continues to revert towards the rising 200-day MA. Provided it continues to hold above the MA, the benefit of the doubt can continue to be given to the medium-term upside. Carriage Services (0.95%) has almost doubled since March but has become overextended relative to the 200-day MA and is increasingly susceptible to mean reversion. Both Stewart Enterprises (2.3%) and Hillenbrand Intl (4.05%) have pulled back rather sharply over the last few weeks but have steadied in the region of their respective 200-day MAs. Clear upward dynamics would confirm returns to demand dominance.

In Australia, Invocare has held a progression of higher reaction lows since 2008 and a sustained move below A$8.20 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for continued upside.

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