Danone Sales Beat Estimates as Chinese Seek Safer Baby Food
Comment of the Day

April 16 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Danone Sales Beat Estimates as Chinese Seek Safer Baby Food

This article by Julie Cruz for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Danone doesn't expect demand for baby-nutrition products to weaken in China, Terisse told analysts today.

“The conditions for safety are not really standard in this country and therefore the need of the consumer for safety remains very strong,” Terisse said. “It's difficult to see any sign for weakening of the demand at least in the short term.”

Exporting more from Europe to China isn't a sustainable solution for meeting rising demand and the priority is to adapt / the company's product portfolio locally, the executive said. Most U.K. supermarkets have introduced restrictions on sales of powdered baby milk following a surge in exports to China as health scandals in the country undermined confidence in local brands, the British Broadcasting Corp. reported April 9. Fonterra, based in Auckland, New Zealand, said Jan. 24 that the discovery of the additive may become a trade concern even though there was no risk to health.

Danone said infant-nutrition sales also benefited from a later Chinese New Year. Many workers based in Chinese cities stock up on items such as baby food before returning to villages for their celebrations, according to Exane BNP Paribas analyst Jeff Stent. The later timing of the holiday had a positive effect on sales of three percentage points, Terisse estimated.

Eoin Treacy's view France listed Danone is a global leader in dairy products, baby food, bottled water and clinical nutrition. The company derived almost as much revenue from the rest of the world as it did from Europe in 2012 and has a solid record of dividend increases. It is also an S&P Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrat yielding 2.62%. As such it qualifies for our Autonomy designation.

The share has generally underperformed other global food companies but has exhibited evidence of a return to demand dominance over the last month and hit a new five-year high today. (Also see Comment of the Day on March 8th).

By and large, a process of mean reversion is evident for a number of the consumer related Autonomies over the last couple of weeks as they unwind short-term overbought conditions. Nestle, for example, posted a large downside weekly key reversal three weeks ago and gapped lower yesterday in an extension of its mean reversion. Kerry Group has a similar pattern while Associated British Foods also appears to have entered a process of mean reversion. Johnson & Johnson and Kimberly Clark both posted downside key day reversals yesterday but countermanded them today.

While on the one hand mean reversion is a probability for a number of the Autonomies, I thought it would be also instructive to highlight some additional constituents that are either breaking out or have returned to test their respective 200-day MAs.

In the cosmetics sector, NuSkin Enterprises is globally diversified with the majority of revenue derived in Asia. The share experienced collateral damage from Herbalife last year at least in part because it has a similar sales strategy. Revenue remains on an upward trajectory nonetheless. The share has been ranging lower in a volatile manner for a year but rallied last week to break the medium-term progression of lower rally highs and a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near €44, would be required to question medium-term recovery potential.

In the utilities sector, Emerson Electric had been ranging below $54 for more than a year and broke upwards in January. It pulled back to test the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side of the underlying range yesterday and will need to find support in this region if the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

Samsung Electronics
has an historic P/E of 13 and an Estimate P/E of 7. The share has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on all but one pullback since 2009 and retains an upward bias. A sustained move below KRW1.4 million would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

When we originally created the Autonomy designation, it was on the understanding that the list would perpetually evolve as some constituents were deemed to no longer satisfy the criteria and we became aware of more companies that fulfilled them.

Australian listed Brambles yields 3.64% and is one of the world's largest pallet and container pooling services businesses. The company generated almost 90% of its revenue outside Australia in 2012. Amcor is a similarly internationally diverse Australian packaging company producing a broad range of plastic, fibre, metal and glass products. Brambles broke out of a four-year base in February and has returned to test the region of the 200-day MA where it appears to have found support. A sustained move below A$7.50 would be required to question medium-term recovery potential. Amcor (4.04%) has rallied more impressively but has also entered a process of mean reversion.

Netherlands listed DSM is a diversified chemicals company and generated 40% of revenue from nutritional products in 2012. The company is globally diversified with Western Europe representing only 35% of revenue in 2012. The share yields 3.03% and hit a new all-time high today. A sustained move below €43.75 would be required to question medium-term potential for additional upside.

While Hong Kong listed Greatwall Motors is still a predominately Chinese brand, it is one of the country's first auto manufacturers to expand internationally. The share found support last week in the region of the 200-day MA and a sustained move below HK$25 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

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