Crude Rises for Sixth Day on Egypt Unrest as Gulf Storm Develops
Comment of the Day

August 16 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Crude Rises for Sixth Day on Egypt Unrest as Gulf Storm Develops

This article by Moming Zhou for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Prices extended the longest winning streak since April as thousands of people poured into the streets in Egypt to protest the killing of supporters of ousted President Mohamed Mursi. The storm system off the Yucatan Peninsula has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

“The reason why the market continues to be strong is the uncertainty of what's going on in Egypt,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “People don't want to be short going into the weekend with all those storm activities.”

Eoin Treacy's view The uncertainty of whether an increasingly disillusioned Muslim Brotherhood is likely to target the Suez Canal has been a bullish factor for oil prices of late. Considering the military has an iron grip on the country, this might also be considered an insignificant threat. As we move into the more active portion of the Gulf of Mexico's storm season, weather represents an additional source of uncertainty.

Brent Crude oil prices continue to extend a rally from the lower side of their two-year range and the psychological $100 area. A break in the short-term progression of higher reaction lows, currently near $106, would be required to question current scope for additional higher to lateral ranging.

Natural gas prices have held a progression of lower rally highs since April and are currently firming from a short-term oversold condition. However a sustained move back above the 200-day MA, currently near $3.60, will be required to suggest a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.

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