Cotton Futures Rally to 9-Month High on Surging Chinese Imports
Comment of the Day

February 19 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Cotton Futures Rally to 9-Month High on Surging Chinese Imports

This article by Yi Tian for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
“There's tightness because Chinese imports are heavier than expected,” Chris Kramedjian, a fiber and textile consultant at INTL FCStone LLC, said in a telephone interview from Nashville, Tennessee. “There's not enough cotton freely available.”

Cotton for May delivery rose 1.5 percent to 84.42 cents a pound at 12:12 p.m. on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Earlier, the price reached 84.87 cents, the highest for a most-active contract since May 10.

China will import 14 million bales this year, the USDA said on Feb. 8. That's higher than the 12.5 million forecast in January. A running bale weighs 500 pounds, or 227 kilograms. A bale weighs 480 pounds.

Eoin Treacy's view Cotton prices broke successfully above 80¢ in January and have been consolidating above that level since. A sustained move below it would be required to question medium-term recovery potential.

Chinese cotton prices also broke upwards in January but have pulled back to find support in the region of the upper side of the base near CNY19,500 where it has firmed once more.

Commonality between the two contracts supports the medium-term bullish hypothesis.

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