Cosco, Container Lines See 'Significant' Traffic Rise in 2010
Comment of the Day

January 15 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Cosco, Container Lines See 'Significant' Traffic Rise in 2010

This article by Wendy Leung may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full
China Cosco Holdings Co., Asia's biggest shipping company by market value, and 14 other container lines, expect a "significant" increase in transpacific cargos this year on rising U.S. consumer confidence.

Vessel utilization levels will remain in the mid-high 90 percent range on most trade segments in the coming months, the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. Cargo traffic likely fell as much as 20 percent last year, it said.

Holiday sales in 2009 were "better-than-expected" after increased U.S. consumer spending spurred retailers to replenish inventories, the statement said. The group is focusing on raising cargo rates in the second half of the 2009-10 contract year, the statement said.

The TSA's other members are Neptune Orient's APL Ltd. unit, China Shipping Container Lines Co., Evergreen Marine Corp., Hanjin Shipping Co., Hapag-Lloyd AG, Hyundai Merchant Marine Co., Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd., Nippon Yusen K.K., Orient Overseas(International) Ltd. and Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp.

Eoin Treacy's view Transportation related stocks took a beating as the global economy entered recession but have likewise begun to attract investor interest as perceptions of recovery improve. The Dow Jones Transportation Index has been led by rail companies most notably Burlington Northern Sante Fe, following Warren Buffett's acquisition, but other transport related companies are also beginning to garner attention. Also See Comment of the Day on November 4th and December 8th

Marine transport has been a laggard but is now showing signs of life. Shipping companies are well represented in the Danish stock market and they have been among the best performers in the KFX so far this year. The Index broke upwards from the four-month range two weeks ago and would need to sustain a move below 330 to begin to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

The Claymore Delta Global Shipping ETF's largest holding is in D/S Norden. The share bottomed in November 2008 and while prices have more than doubled since, it is only now breaking upwards from its base. A downward dynamic would now be required to check potential for additional upside.

Maersk has performed somewhat better since March. The share has been consolidating below DKK40,000 since August and broke upwards last week. A sustained move back below that level would be required to question scope for further upside.

Renewed interest in shipping companies is not confined to Denmark. A significant degree of commonality is observable in the sector globally, with China Cosco firming above HK$10. Japan's Mitsui OSK is rallying from the lower side of the 15-month base. Neptune Orient is testing the September high at SG$2.

US shipping companies are so far lagging the performance of their global peers. Eagle Bulk Shipping has sustained a progression of incrementally higher lows since November 2008 suggesting that demand is gradually regaining the upper hand. A sustained move above $8.50 is needed to complete the developing base.

Shipping companies have been neglected by investors following the credit crisis but the above charts suggest that this situation is changing. Here is a list of the world's top 20 shipping companies, most of which can be found in the Chart Library.

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