Contagion Risk Spreads as CDS Market Puts Focus on Deutsche Bank
Comment of the Day

March 20 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Contagion Risk Spreads as CDS Market Puts Focus on Deutsche Bank

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

DB’s CDS has widened by virtually the same as UBS’s over the last month, even though it has not had to digest a rival with $575 billion in assets over a weekend.

Deutsche Bank’s revenues have fallen over most of the last decade, and the bank has faced questions around its governance, with BaFin, the German bank regulator, censuring it over its money-laundering controls. However, over the last two years the investment bank has spearheaded a recovery, with revenues and profitability improving.

Nonetheless, DB lagged the rebound seen in European bank shares that began last summer, while its price-to-book ratio remains subterranean.

Contagion risk is much lower than it was in 2008, but it is not zero. And contagion is not always fully logical: Credit Suisse’s tier 1 capital ratio was higher than DB’s.

Eoin Treacy's view

No one reads prospectuses until they must. They are both long and boring, so file searches will now be underway to identify those with similar characteristics to the CoCos issued by Credit Suisse and UBS. Bond investors are not in the habit of being zeroed, and particularly so when the equity is still trading.

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