Consumer companies
Comment of the Day

March 05 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Consumer companies

Eoin Treacy's view The evolution of the global consumer sector has been facilitated by improving governance in some of the world's largest population centres which has fostered social mobility. This has raised hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and into the consuming class and the trend is likely to continue over the coming decades.

Where once companies offering the types of products we tend to take for granted in our daily lives were considered boring and defensive, the modern reality is that they represent an important growth story In this regard they offer the security of strong cash flows, healthy balance sheets, strong records of dividend growth but also the capacity to grow earnings over time.

The SPDR Consumer Staples ETF has been trending consistently higher since 2009 and rallied particularly well from the November lows. While somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day MA at present a sustained move below the trend mean, currently near $35, would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Some of the sector's better performing instruments are even more overextended. Potential for mean reversion is increasing. The result of a High/Low filter of the constituents of the consumer section of my Favourite highlights the fact that half of the 42 companies have hit at least new 3-month highs in the last five days. The majority are new all-time highs.

Rather than concentrate on those that have already rallied impressively I thought it would be more instructive to review some that have broken out more recently.

Estee Lauder is one of the original constituents of the Autonomies because of its global reach and strong record of dividend increases. The share spent much of 2012 in a range but broke out today. A sustained move below $60 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Colgate Palmolive completed a more than six-month range three weeks ago and a sustained move below $105 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Revlon has been ranging below $20 since at least late 2009 but broke emphatically above that level three weeks ago and a sustained move below $18 would be required to question recovery potential.

Clearwater Paper was spun off from Potlatch Corp in 2008. It produces approximately half of all the own brand tissue paper sold in the USA. The share completed a more than two-year range in January and has been consolidating below $50 for the last few weeks. A sustained move below $43 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

UK listed McBride has a market cap of £200 million and produces own brand cosmetics and household products for retailers and department stores. The share has a rounding characteristic consistent with accumulation and a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near 132p, would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

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