Cocoa Climbs to Five-Month High in N.Y.; Sugar, Coffee Decline
Comment of the Day

January 20 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Cocoa Climbs to Five-Month High in N.Y.; Sugar, Coffee Decline

This article by Debarati Roy for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Cocoa jumped to a five-month high on concern that supplies from Ivory Coast, the world's biggest producer, may be disrupted because of political unrest. Sugar and coffee fell.

A disputed election on Nov. 28 left the country with two rival presidents and triggered a wave of violence that left at least 260 people dead, according to the United Nations. European Union-registered ships are barred from new financial transactions with the main cocoa ports in Abidjan and San Pedro, as part of sanctions begun last week.

"We could see some cocoa factories having to declare a force majeure because of supply disruptions," said Tom Mikulski, a senior strategist at Lind-Waldock, a broker in Chicago.

Eoin Treacy's view The sanctions introduced so far do not apply to cocoa or sugar but are likely to have a debilitating effect on supply nonetheless. US cocoa prices surged today, to test the upper side of the yearlong range and a clear downward dynamic would be required to check current scope for additional upside. The UK traded contract also rallied impressively. Political uncertainty is helping to drive demand for cocoa, which means that if the situation is resolved amicably prices are equally likely to fall back sharply.

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