Coca-Cola the Dairy Farmer Happy Cows, High-Protein, Fat Prices
Comment of the Day

March 17 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Coca-Cola the Dairy Farmer Happy Cows, High-Protein, Fat Prices

This article by Shruti Singh and Jennifer Kaplan for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

Since 2011, Dean has targeted kids and adults with its TruMoo milk, which comes in such flavors as cookies and cream and chocolate marshmallow. Parents like it because the milk contains no high-fructose corn syrup. DairyPure, on the market for about 10 months, appears to be building on TruMoo’s momentum. For the 12 weeks ended on Jan. 23, volume sales of Dean’s branded milk rose 1.6 percent, compared with a 7.3 percent decline over the previous year, according to Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Alexia Howard. Specialty milk sales jumped 21 percent in 2015, up from 9 percent growth in 2014, largely thanks to “the launch of Coca-Cola’s high-protein Fairlife brand,” Howard says.

Some say Coke’s drive for dairy will be an uphill climb, given Fairlife’s premium pricing. “Somehow you’ve got to build a value-added case that there’s more to this,” says Ian Shackleton, an analyst at Nomura International.

Coke, which holds a minority stake in Fairlife, believes its efforts will pay off. The product relies on a cold filtration system to separate the five parts of milk—water, vitamins and minerals, lactose, protein and fat—and recombine them in different recipes, changing the final product's nutritional makeup.

Jones was semiretired when he connected with McCloskey and his wife, Sue, in 2010. He urged them to team up with Coke, which has a vast distribution network and access to hundreds of thousands of supermarket shelves across the country. Two years later, Jones helped broker the joint venture. “We needed the marketing,” McCloskey says. “We had everything except the structure to get it to consumers in every corner of the country.”

Eoin Treacy's view

Demand for sugar is on an upward trajectory but not in every geography. While demand continues to surge, along with diabetes, in emerging markets, acceptance of the dangers of excessive sugar consumption are quickly gaining ground in more developed markets. That represents a challenge for companies like Coca Cola which have traditionally benefitted from demand for sugary treats. 

Diet Coke and Coke Zero are both responses to this trend; zero Weight Watchers points versus 3. The current fad for high protein, low sugar diets offers an attractive segue into milk and whey products while the solid cash flows and reliable dividends the company offers represent attractive qualities while investors are worried about the direction of the market. 

Coca Cola moved to a new all-time high today completing a two-year range. A clear downward dynamic would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. 

PepsiCo shares a broadly similar pattern and looks likely to hit new highs. 

Dr.Pepper Snapple Group remains in a reasonably consistent uptrend and firmed this week from the region of the 200-day MA. 

Tyson Foods took off following an earnings surprise at the beginning of February that demonstrated continued robust demand from emerging markets. The share is now overextended by any measure and the risk of a reversion towards the mean is growing. 

Kerry Group, Ireland’s largest food ingredients business, is an S&P Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrat and remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend. A sustained move below the trend mean would be required to question medium-term upside potential. 

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