CMBS: Refinancing risks have not become smaller
Comment of the Day

September 13 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

CMBS: Refinancing risks have not become smaller

This article by Sophie Ahlswede and Tobias Just for Deutsche Bank may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
One of the factors cited as having triggered the economic crisis is the housing market bubbles in the United States and Europe. However, one factor frequently overlooked is that many commercial real estate markets had also shown signs of overheating before the crisis: the office and retail property markets had witnessed a largely debt-financed investment boom up to 2007 - similar to the housing markets. The trend is now about to boomerang, for numerous portfolios are currently up for refinancing. It is not going to be an easy job - neither in Europe nor in the US.

Eoin Treacy's view Prior to the financial crisis many debt issuers assumed refinancing would never be an issue considering the abundance and availability of credit at the time. The difficulty countries on the Eurozone's periphery are having in refinancing their debt is an example of just how wrong those assumptions were. Companies are now, more than ever, judged on the strength of balance sheets when it comes time to refinance.

Institutions wishing to participate in refinancing operations generally attempt to get the best possible yield they can so they deliberately time their purchases often to the detriment of the issuer. Perhaps a better measure of refinancing success is how much is achieved rather than at what price.

The iShares MBS Fixed Rate Bond ETF holds a portfolio of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae bonds. It has been trending consistently higher since late 2008 and a sustained move below 106 would be required to question the medium-term advance.

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