Cloud computing review
Comment of the Day

June 28 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Cloud computing review

Eoin Treacy's view The Nasdaq-100 has been a clear leader among developed market indices over the last few years, not least because its major constituents are heavily leveraged to the growth of the global consumer. A significant number of the Index's best performing shares have either been focused on cloud computing or on the cutting edge of healthcare. Both of these sectors have the capacity to introduce cost efficiencies which were not previously available and therefore can create value.

I performed a click through of the Nasdaq-100 on March 5th 2010 looking at 20-year charts to find companies they were breaking out of long-term bases. The commonality evident in the results only became apparent to me a few months later. They were all involved in cloud computing. Since then, I have performed a number of reviews of the sector with the most recent on June 7th.

With so many indices now testing their respective 200-day MAs I thought it might be instructive to revisit this leading sector to ascertain if these shares are still outperforming.

Apple's four-month reaction remains limited to a reversion towards the 200-day MA and it has bounced impressively from that area over the last two weeks. A sustained move below $300 would be required to question medium-term potential for additional upside.

IBM hit a new high in May and its subsequent reaction has been comparatively shallow. A sustained move below the $155 area would be needed to begin to question medium-term upside potential. Amazon, BMC Software and Check Point Software Technologies have similar patterns.

EMC Software, Citrix Systems and Oracle posted slightly larger reactions but found at least short-term support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs. found support in the region of the 200-day MA in March and has trended back up to test the peak near $150. A sustained move below $130 would be required to check medium-term scope for additional upside.

Teradata remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend defined by a progression of higher reaction lows one above another. It broke out of the most recent range last week and a sustained move below $50 would be required to begin to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Cognizant Technologies has broken its medium-term progression of higher reaction lows which marks a clear inconsistency. It now appears to be in the process of finding support in the region of its MA. However, given the technical deterioration, some additional time and a sustained move above $75 will likely be required to signal a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Juniper Networks failed to sustain the breakout from the more than decade long base in March and fell precipitously, particularly since late May. It appears to have found at least short-term support in the region of $30 and a sustained move below $29.15 would be required to check potential for an additional technical rally.

Google has also pulled back rather sharply over the last few months and is now testing last year's lows. A break of the progression of lower rally highs, currently near $533 would be required to confirm the return of medium-term demand in this region.

In conclusion, many of the above shares continue to display leadership credentials and exhibit some of the more consistent uptrends on offer currently. The fact that so many have bounced from above or in the region of their 200-day MAs is a positive development and supports our contention that the current reaction can still be characterised as a pause within an overall medium-term bullish environment. (Also see my piece on relative strength leadership posted in Comment of the Day on Friday).

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