Clive Hale's View from the Bridge: Do you have a Plan B?
Comment of the Day

October 17 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Clive Hale's View from the Bridge: Do you have a Plan B?

My thanks to the author for his latest note, written with both wit and insight. Here is a brief sample:
The case for the cunning plans will be discussed at the EU summit next weekend in Brussels. On the agenda will be a bigger write down on Greek debt (plan A), more fire power for the European Financial Stability Facility EFSF (plan B) and yet another recapitalisation of the banking system (plan C).

The Greek hair dresser's bill has been much discussed already by the "euro elite" and 50% off the mullet looks almost certain. However they need a way to avoid calling this most obvious of defaults a default. Otherwise those dreadful speculators who have arranged insurance on their bond holdings by bidding up the price of credit default swaps (CDS) will get off scot-free. Never mind that most of the major buyers of sovereign CDS are banks prudently controlling their risk exposure to avoid being caught up in plan C. The providers of this insurance include many of the weaker banks, trying to earn their way out of the hole they are in, knowing that they will get bailed out if a default happens. They will need bailing out anyway so denying that the Greek haircut is a default will only hurt the good guys but then nobody like a banker these days...

David Fuller's view The numbers in terms of Euroland's indebtedness are sufficiently awful and the path to fiscal union sufficiently strewn with obstacles and uncertainties, for this drama to carry on for longer than any concerned observer would hope for. This begs a relevant question, not least for investors: When will this crisis lose its capacity to shock?

We do not appear to have reached that point but to the extent that this becomes a widely held perception, it should concentrate the minds of those charged with finding viable solutions for Europe's problems.

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