Chinese shares
Comment of the Day

December 13 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Chinese shares

Eoin Treacy's view David posted a heavyweight and informative report from Oriental Patron focusing on Hong Kong listed Chinese shares in Comment of the Day on Tuesday. I thought subscribers would like to see a review of those shares given the heightened probability that the mainland Chinese market has bottomed.

In the automotive sector, Great Wall Motor is looking increasingly susceptible to mean reversion following an impressive advance. Dongfeng Motor found support in the region of the lower side of the 2-year range in September and continues to rebound. Yulon Motor is also rallying from the lower side of its range. Sinotruk Hong Kong has rallied impressively from the lower side of its base and is now testing the upper boundary. While somewhat overbought in the short-term, a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Brilliance China Automotive found support in the region of HK$8.50 from October and a sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Ju Teng International has an estimated P/E of 7.5, yields 2.39% and has been ranging above HK$3 in a gradual mean reversion since August. A sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In the retail sector Want Want remains in a relatively consistent uptrend and would need to sustain a move below the 200-day MA to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Following an impressive advance this year, Uni-President appears to have entered a medium-term process of mean reversion.

In the consumer goods sector Biostime is a leading manufacturer of infant formula and broke out of a six-month range late last month. A sustained move below HK$21 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

As China ramps up its development of unconventional oil and gas supplies, the oil service sector has been a focus of investor interest. Honghua has more than doubled since September and is representative of the sector. While it is becoming increasingly overextended in the short-term, a clear downward dynamic would be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause. Chu Kong Pipe Petroleum & Natural Gas Steel Pipe rallied to break a medium-term progression of lower rally highs last week and a sustained move below HK$3 would now be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In the jewellery retail sector Oriental Watch and Chow Tai Fook hit new six-month highs in the last couple of the weeks and clear downward dynamics would be required to check medium-term scope for additional upside.

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