Chinese rare earth exports burst through $100,000-per-tonne mark in Feb
Comment of the Day

March 22 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Chinese rare earth exports burst through $100,000-per-tonne mark in Feb

This article by Tom Miles for Reuters may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The apparent price rises have averaged $10,000 per tonne per month but accelerated in February, galloping ahead by $34,000 per tonne, according to Reuters calculations based on data from China's Customs office.

Last month each tonne of exports was valued at $109,036, including the cost of insurance and freight, almost half as much again as the average value in January.

The explosion in export values has coincided with a collapse in volumes coming out of China, the source of almost all the world's rare earth supplies, which has cut export quotas of the 17 rare earth metals and raised tariffs on exports.

China's actions have infuriated its trading partners but lifted the shares of the few mining and prospecting companies outside China that are well-placed to capitalise on the constriction of Chinese supply.

Eoin Treacy's view China's export restrictions of rare earth metals has forced countries to realise just how dependent on China they are. National security concerns have been voiced by the USA and Japan and efforts are underway to ensure security of supply. Companies are now racing to bring new supply online in an effort to profit from the tightness in the market. Most rare earth metal miners are comparatively small companies which makes them prone to high volatility as investor sentiment waxes and wanes. This needs to be considered when performing one's due diligence.

This Chart Library Performance Filter of 22 rare earth metal miners ranked by 3-month US Dollar performance may be of use to those researching the sector.

Alkane Resources remains on a steep upward trajectory and is retesting the high near A$1.60. A break in the progression of rising reaction lows, currently near A$1.20 would be required to suggest that a mean reversion correction is getting underway. Avalon Resources has a similar pattern.

Lynas Corp remains in a steep but relatively consistent medium-term uptrend. It is currently forming a "step" mostly above A$1.70 in what has so far been a steady process of mean reversion. A sustained move below A$1.50 would be required to begin to question medium-term upside potential.

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