A rally in Chinese equities steepened Monday as bumper credit figures for January added to signs of increased stimulus.
The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.7 percent by the close, taking its rebound since a Jan. 3 low to 12 percent, as turnover on mainland exchanges reached a 10-month high. The small cap ChiNext index in Shenzhen, typically the most speculative part of the market, soared more than 4 percent. The surge weighed on government bonds, with the 10-year yield climbing the most in two months.
The nation’s equities, which were the world’s worst performing in 2018, are starting to take off as the new securities regulator eases curbs on trading and an economic slowdown spurs monetary easing. In a sign of how broad the rally has been, the relative strength of four major indexes have all climbed above 70 -- a level that signals to some traders an asset may be overheating. The last time that happened was May 2015, when the equity market was in a bubble.
I posted this chart of the impact tightening measures have had on the Chinese shadow banking sector a month ago. It is a clear signal both of the reasons for the slowdown in economic activity and the rationale the authorities now have to declaring the policy a success. It is increasingly likely that the Chinese authorities are now willing to start stimulating the economy again.
The Shanghai A-Share index has now rallied to break the medium-term sequence of lower rally highs and is now testing the region of the trend mean. A sustained move below 2700 would be required to question current scope for additional upside.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has led on the upside and is now firming from the region of the trend mean.
Copper appears on the cusp of breaking on the upside.