China's New Strategy for Curbing World's Worst Stock Slide
Comment of the Day

October 19 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

China's New Strategy for Curbing World's Worst Stock Slide

This article from Bloomberg news may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Economic policy makers including Vice Premier Liu He, who also weighed in on Friday, are now left walking a tightrope. To fortify the nation’s negotiating position on trade with the Trump administration, they need to stem the $3 trillion stock rout and support growth at home -- all without giving up on their goal of containing soaring debt levels.

"China is under pressure on multiple fronts," said Michael Every, head of Asia financial markets research at Rabobank in Hong Kong. "Logically, all this pushes China to make a deal, yet I don’t think there is a deal to be had."

While the Shanghai Composite opened lower on Friday morning after the officials’ statements, it rallied in the afternoon and closed with a 2.6 percent gain. Some investors speculated that China’s “National Team” of state-backed funds stepped in to add some oomph to policy makers’ verbal intervention.

Eoin Treacy's view

China started jawboning the market higher today which is a welcome sign that the administration is beginning to pay attention to the rout in domestic shares. Talking the market higher is free so it is usually the first recourse officials resort to in their efforts to support markets. However, it will need to be followed by clear action to arrest the decline if negative investor sentiment is to be influenced.

The Shanghai A-Share Index posted an upside key day reversal today to signal at least a near-term low. However, upside follow through on Monday will be required to confirm support. While potential for a reversionary rally has improved, a sustained move above the trend mean will be required to confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance.

The banking sector firmed today to hold its sequence of higher reaction lows and remains the sector with the clearest evidence to date of overt government support.

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